The Odds: Watson Has What It Takes to Pay Off at Greenbrier

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LAS VEGAS — Bill Haas (40-1) took the lead for good on the front nine last Sunday in the AT&T National and never looked back. He had at least a two-shot lead through the back nine and ended up winning by three shots over Roberto Castro who was in the field at (9-4).

Haas made 25 birdies for the week and ended up shooting a 5-under 66 on Sunday. He has won at least one event in each of the past four years on the PGA Tour. The only other players to do that are Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose.

We did not use Haas for the tournament, but we did have Jason Day (+130) over Adam Scott in a matchup and Day was the winner there when he shot 69 on Sunday. Scott ballooned to a final-round 76.

This week the PGA Tour moves to the Greenbrier Classic in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia.

The course is called The Old White TPC, and it’s a 7,287-yard par-70 design. It’s a little unusual in that the front 9 is par 34 while the back side has the only two par 5s and is par 36. It’s also unusual that the final hole is a par 3. The only other course on Tour with a closing par 3 is East Lake.

Last year the winner was Ted Potter, Jr. He eagled the 17th and birdied the 18th just to get into a playoff with Troy Kelly. Potter, Jr won on the third playoff hole.

Who are we looking at this week? Well, for starters, you have to be able to go low here. This is the course where Stuart Appleby shot a final-round 59 to win in 2010.

BUBBA WATSON (20-1). This is his first appearance at the Old White TPC, but we all know Bubba can shoot low numbers. He was off last week after blowing the lead at The Travelers and finishing T4. Believe it or not, he is fourth on Tour in greens in regulation.

GRAHAM DeLEAT (25-1). We backed DeLaet last week and he tied for eighth. He was third the week before at the Travelers Championship. He has five top 10s and 10 Top 25s on the year and is going to break through soon.

JORDAN SPIETH (40-1). Spieth showed last week why he is going to be a great player. He battled back in the final round to tie for the lead at one point and ended up finishing sixth. He has five Top 10s on the year and has won over a million dollars. That’s amazing for a 19 year old. He is going to win sooner rather than later.

ANDRES ROMERO (80-1). Romero has been in the Top 25 the last two weeks and seems to have found his game. He was tied for the lead last week after 54 holes but shot a 75 on Sunday. He doesn’t have a win since 2008, but he’s playing very well right now. He was tied for fourth here in 2011.

For our matchup of the week we are going to use Spieth (-110) against Russell Henley. Henley is another fine young player, but we’re sold on Spieth’s game. These two were paired in a matchup last week and Spieth was EVEN, so the -110 seems like a fair price.

Next week it’s on to The John Deere Classic, and then we move to the Open Championship at Muirfield, Scotland.

Enjoy …

LVH SUPERBOOK ODDS TO WIN – THE GREENBRIER CLASSIC

THE OLD WHITE TPC — WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, WEST VIRGINIA, JULY 4-7, 2013

ODDS TO WIN:

PHIL MICKELSON 12/1
WEBB SIMPSON 15/1
BUBBA WATSON 20/1
BILL HAAS 20/1
BILLY HORSCHEL 25/1
GRAHAM DeLAET 25/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 30/1
SCOTT STALLINGS 30/1
JORDAN SPIETH 40/1
RUSSELL HENLEY 40/1
BRENDON DE JONGE 40/1
JIMMY WALKER 40/1
SCOTT PIERCY 40/1
RYAN PALMER 40/1
NICK WATNEY 50/1
PETER HANSON 50/1
GARY WOODLAND 50/1
BOO WEEKLEY 50/1
ROBERTO CASTRO 50/1
KEVIN CHAPPELL 50/1
KYLE STANLEY 50/1
CHARLES HOWELL III 60/1
K.J. CHOI 60/1
DAVID HEARN 60/1
CHARLIE WI 60/1
MORGAN HOFFMANN 60/1
BRIAN DAVIS 60/1
CARL PETTERSSON 60/1
JOHN SENDEN 60/1
JEFF OVERTON 60/1
BEN CRANE 80/1
KEN DUKE 80/1
JASON KOKRAK 80/1
JAMES DRISCOLL 80/1
CHEZ REAVIE 80/1
ANDRES ROMERO 80/1
BRENDAN STEELE 80/1
PAT PEREZ 80/1
CAMERON TRINGALE 80/1
D.A. POINTS 80/1
DAVID LINGMERTH 80/1
TED POTTER, JR 80/1
ROBERT KARLSSON 100/1
LUKE GUTHRIE 100/1
BUD CAULEY 100/1
VIJAY SINGH 100/1
KENNY PERRY 100/1
MICHAEL KIM 150/1
RYO ISHIKAWA 200/1
FIELD (all others) 7/4

TOURNAMENT MATCHUPS:

WEBB SIMPSON -120 vs. BUBBA WATSON EVEN
GRAHAM DeLAET -120 vs. BILLY HORSCHEL EVEN
RUSSELL HENLEY-110 vs. JORDAN SPIETH -110
RYAN PALMER EVEN vs. SCOTT PIERCY -120
BRENDON DE JONGE -120 vs. JIMMY WALKER EVEN
PETER HANSON -110 vs. NICK WATNEY -110
ROBERTO CASTRO -120 vs. BRIAN DAVIS EVEN
KEVIN CHAPPELL -110 vs. DAVID HEARN -110
K.J. CHOI EVEN vs. CHARLES HOWELL III -120
JAMES DRISCOLL -110 vs. CHEZ REAVIE -110

 

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